The raw data for our 3Q22 market reports have been compiled, and the findings are fascinating.
The four main categories, downtown and suburban office, retail and industrial sectors, have seen positive absorption since the last quarter.
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Oil and gas prices will continue to drive economic growth in Saskatchewan and Alberta through 2024, according to the Conference Board. Saskatchewan will also benefit from higher prices for commodities such as wheat and potash.
Saskatchewan is reported to lead our country in 2022 with a growth of 7.6 per cent.
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This Saskatoon office vacancy graph illustrates it well.
We see the relative similarity between downtown and suburban office vacancy trends for the 12 years between 2008 and 2020; then, suddenly, in 2020, the divide begins to swell.
We currently have over a 10 per cent vacancy spread between the two submarkets.
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The lack of inventory in Saskatoon’s industrial sector is further stymied by the type of properties that are available.
Many industrial users have needs that simply can’t be met by older product.
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The pandemic wreaked havoc on many industries, but farmland still remains a hot commodity.
Canadian farmland has steadily increased in price since 2012 and Saskatchewan values are no exception.
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My colleague, Eugene Hritzuk recently completed an interesting study of property taxes in 16 Saskatchewan cities.
In each case, the estimate was calculated based on a $4 million commercial property assessment from 2021.
The variance was substantial depending on where he looked.
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I was a bit off the mark!
One year ago, I predicted that the Saskatoon Industrial vacancy rate would slip under 5 per cent by year end. It was sitting at 5.32 per cent at that time.
We’re just about to release our 4Q 2021 market reports which will show that the average industrial vacancy rate declined by 1.33 per cent to 3.99 per cent.
With a positive net absorption of 42,147 SF quarter over quarter, that rate of decline accelerated after a 1.23 per cent drop that took place over the two previous years.
There has never been a better time to cash-out of your Saskatchewan industrial and retail commercial real estate.
While there is currently demand from owner occupants for office buildings, that demand however is not the same for multi-tenant office due to typically higher vacancy in that particular asset class.
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It’s interesting to see the similarity that has been revealed between Regina and Saskatoon through ICR’s latest Market Update.
The difference in vacancy rates between the two cities, in this sector are less than 10 basis points.
You must go back to 2010 to find similar strength in absorption of vacant industrial property.
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As a brokerage, we track existing and new developments in each commercial sector and thereafter advise clients when and what to build.
For this discussion I’m going to focus on the Saskatoon industrial market.
As a brokerage, we track existing and new developments in each commercial sector and thereafter advise clients when and what to build.
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