In spite of the negative economic impact of COVID-19, the sale and lease activity within our existing industrial market continues.
The vacancy rate has risen marginally by 0.12 per cent to 5.86 per cent, according to our recent Q2 market report.
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I’ve not been shy about my love affair with the traditional interior mall as a retail institution.
While skeptics have been predicting their inevitable death, the interior mall seems to innovate and survive in spite of its critics.
But could the disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic finally have done them in?
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Reporting to you live from Saskatchewan, stay tuned for more economic spinoff from the Covid-19 pandemic!
And by spinoff, I mean spinning off the tracks or wheels or whatever analogy you’d like to lend.
The Saskatchewan government delivered their budget three months late mid-June, with a big fat $2.4 billion deficit ribbon on top.
It’s a gift no one wanted, and we can’t return to sender.
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The sudden, real impact of COVID-19 can be seen in supply chain disruptions, lower consumer confidence and reduced consumer spending.
Trying to measure the macro picture, the scope and duration of the economic stoppage is not easy.
For those corporations who are currently sitting on surplus capital, waiting for the bargains to surface, it is still to early to assess how property values will be affected.
It is however, becoming clear which sector will emerge as strongest asset class.
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There is no question about the effects of the Covoid-19 pandemic on Canada’s economy.
This sudden misfortune has tested the strength of the commercial real estate industry in ways we’ve never encountered before.
So what does the future hold for tenants when this is all over?
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Megatrends are often described as powerful and transformational forces that can change economy, business and society over the course of centuries.
Obvious examples of this would be the use of electricity, the creation of the automobile and in the most recent past, the adoption of the Internet.
We follow quarterly and annual trends in our markets, but what are some of the megatrends being predicted for our economy as they may affect commercial real estate specifically?
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After reaching a record high vacancy rate of 10.3 per cent in 2016, the multi-family sector has rebounded.
The latest CMHC report, which was just released, indicates as of Oct 2019 that rate dropped to 5.7 per cent. That’s a significant decrease in just three years, 4.6 per cent to be exact, despite a rising supply of new rental units.
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I promised you that I’d hold myself accountable in my Jan 2019 post and report back to you.
So, how did I do? At that time, I predicted a decline in the overall Saskatoon Industrial vacancy rate from 6.8 per cent to 6 per cent.
That’s after a significant 2 per cent decline in 2018 and a 0.9 per cent decline to 6.8 per cent in 2019.
I’ve never professed to be a psychic, but I think looking over the trends of the past year I can safely make a few bets on the commercial real estate market for Saskatoon in 2020.
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Ongoing expansion in our Saskatoon commercial retail sector has resulted in the overall supply exceeding demand.
Our 3Q19 retail market update reports the average vacancy rate has edged up to 4.6 per cent.
Let’s look at where that expansion is taking place and the market locations where the most interesting vacancy story can be told.
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