I was off the mark in Q4 2019 Industrial Vacancy Forecast

I promised you that I’d hold myself accountable in my Jan 2019 post and report back to you. 

So, how did I do? At that time, I predicted a decline in the overall Saskatoon Industrial vacancy rate from 6.8 per cent to 6 per cent.

That’s after a significant 2 per cent decline in 2018 and a 0.9 per cent decline to 6.8 per cent in 2019.

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What does 2020 have in store for the commercial real estate market?

I’ve never professed to be a psychic, but I think looking over the trends of the past year I can safely make a few bets on the commercial real estate market for Saskatoon in 2020.

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Greatest gifts of the past year

Christmas is a time to reflect and appreciate all the good things that happened over the past year.

Commercial real estate agents are no different.

And as such, I submit to you the greatest gifts tenants, landlords, buyers and sellers gave me in 2019.

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Saskatoon retail continues market expansion

Ongoing expansion in our Saskatoon commercial retail sector has resulted in the overall supply exceeding demand.

Our 3Q19 retail market update reports the average vacancy rate has edged up to 4.6 per cent.

Let’s look at where that expansion is taking place and the market locations where the most interesting vacancy story can be told.

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Saskatoon property owners face tax increase, commercial owners’ shoulder greatest burden

The City of Saskatoon has tabled their epic discussion on a two-year budget for 2020/2021.

While the preliminary budget released this summer projected a 3.97 per cent property tax increase overall, we can all breathe a sigh of relief because it will only be 3.7 per cent.

Wait, what the heck?! That’s still a lot!

This is not good news for anyone, especially commercial property owners who already carry a greater tax load than their residential counterparts.

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Balance returns to 50 per cent Saskatoon’s industrial sectors

The overall Saskatoon vacancy rate has been trending lower since its peak in 2016. Our Q319 Industrial Market survey reports an overall current vacancy rate of 6.04 per cent.

That one number does not, however, reveal the complete story.

I consider a rate under 5 per cent to reflect a relatively balanced market.

How close are the eight submarkets to regaining balance?

Here’s an overview along with the factors that are important to consider surrounding that question.

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Pet business is nothing to bark about

Canadians have never been more in love with household pets.

According to the latest statistics from the Canadian Animal Health Institute (CAHI), there are 8.2 million dogs and 8.3 million cats in Canadian households.

That’s a ten per cent increase over the past ten years, reports CAHI.

This equates to approximately 41 per cent of all homes having one dog, or 37 per cent having one cat.

It’s no surprise then that the pet business is booming.

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The art of passionate selling

As a commercial real estate broker/advisor, the type of assignments I take varies significantly.

They’re never boring; there’s a different nuance to every deal!

I started my career in real estate sales when I was 20 years old and to this day, still find it immensely rewarding when a client’s goals are met through a closed transaction.

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Nashville’s Canadian connection

I was privileged to be invited along on yet another great ICR sales adventure, with the company treating us to a trip to Nashville this past month!

Nashville, Tennessee is known best by its nickname of Music City as the home of country music.

According to a study completed through Belmont University, the City is home to over 80 record labels, 130 music publishers, 180 recording studios, 27 entertainment publications and estimated 5,000 working union musicians.

Belmont estimated in 2006 that the music industry, through tourism as well as direct and indirect industry spending contributed $6.38 billion to the local economy.

Quite the economy indeed, when you consider the first citizen to inhabit Nashville had a wildly different background from music.

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Federal election implications for CRE

It seems like just yesterday that Justin Trudeau shocked Westerners with a decisive victory in the 2015 federal election.

However, it’s been a brisk four years and now everyone’s hitched back up on the old campaign trail.

As is the season, all parties are setting their plans forward for Canadians should they get a chance to lead.

I may have to read between the lines a little, but is there anything in these election promises for the commercial real estate industry?

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